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Date: Tue, 27 Nov 2001 08:50:03 -0800 (PST)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Tue, Nov 27, 2001
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[IMAGE]=09


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  H=
ouston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   D=
evelopment Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  =
Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version=
 of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you woul=
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reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad=
ersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Tuesday, Nov 27, 2001 at 10=
:34AM EST    Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Nov 27, 2001 at 09:38AM EST =
 Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulati=
ons Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUI=
LA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit:=
 AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Te=
mperature'      Today: Tuesday, November 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Del=
ta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMA=
GE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 57 NC ERCOT(SP) 56 -=
1 FRCC(SE) 80 NC MAAC(NE) 58 +1 MAIN(CTR) 40 -1 MAPP(HP) 26 NC NPCC(NE) 51 =
+2 SERC(SE) 70 +1 SPP(SP) 36 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 20 -1 WSCC(SW) 50 N=
C     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S=
W Mean 43 21 50 34 18 69 50 45 Max 47 24 54 40 22 71 53 51 Min 40 17 48 29 =
14 66 46 40 Range 7 7 6 11 8 5 7 11 StD-P 1.3 1.7 1.4 3.0 1.9 1.6 2.0 2.7 C=
ount 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used =
Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:  Very stormy pattern fo=
r the next few days as Canadian cold interacts with Atlantic warmth.  A ser=
ies of strong storms are expected to run through the Continental U.S. durin=
g the five-day period. One has already produced heavy snows in the Northern=
 Plains and is producing another round of strong t-storms along the Gulf co=
ast. The cold air has pushed far enough South through the Plains to produce=
 some snows into Northern Texas today. This cold is having a difficult time=
 pushing east thanks to a strong SE U.S. ridge. There will be somewhat of a=
n eastern push later in the week, but with a sizeable weakening as it occur=
s. The next in the series of storms for the West mid to late week appears t=
o be a powerhouse. Rain along the coast will be measured in inches (primari=
ly from San Francisco North), mountain snows! will be in feet and all of th=
is will be accompanied by strong winds. The deep trough in the West will ke=
ep temperatures all through the region below to much below normal. The extr=
eme East remains above seasonal norms while the rest of the country sees a =
fair amount of fluctuation on daily temperatures depending upon their locat=
ion in respect to these storms.    Tomorrow: Wednesday, November 28, 2001  =
 Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IM=
AGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(C=
TR) 48 +1 ERCOT(SP) 43 -4 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 58 -1 MAIN(CTR) 36 +2 MAP=
P(HP) 27 +1 NPCC(NE) 46 +2 SERC(SE) 69 +2 SPP(SP) 31 -2 WSCC(NW) 41 -1 WSCC=
(RK) 25 -2 WSCC(SW) 49 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Re=
g CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 21 50 37 20 69 40 45 Max 42 27 54 41 30 7=
1 49 52 Min 34 18 48 32 12 66 32 39 Range 8 9 6 9 18 5 17 13 StD-P 1.3 1.6 =
1.1 2.4 3.7 1.7 3.0 3.0 Count 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Click Here  to See Ea=
ch Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Thursday, No=
vember 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [I=
MAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)  =
 [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 57 +7 ERCOT(SP) 54 -2 FRCC(SE) 80 +2 MAAC(NE) 62 NC MA=
IN(CTR) 41 +1 MAPP(HP) 35 +3 NPCC(NE) 45 -3 SERC(SE) 63 +3 SPP(SP) 40 -4 WS=
CC(NW) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 39 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IM=
AGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 29 53 40 30 65 41 47 Max=
 44 36 59 45 39 70 49 53 Min 35 23 50 38 26 62 33 44 Range 9 13 9 7 13 8 16=
 9 StD-P 2.7 2.9 2.6 1.7 3.0 1.9 4.8 2.3 Count 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Clic=
k Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    D=
ay 4: Friday, November 30, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatil=
ity Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on ima=
ge to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 48 +2 ERCOT(SP) 63 -3 FRCC(SE) 78 +3 M=
AAC(NE) 58 +3 MAIN(CTR) 43 +2 MAPP(HP) 37 +3 NPCC(NE) 54 +4 SERC(SE) 61 +1 =
SPP(SP) 51 -2 WSCC(NW) 41 -1 WSCC(RK) 39 +2 WSCC(SW) 53 -2     Range Standa=
rd Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 35 52 36=
 31 59 53 48 Max 42 40 58 44 40 67 59 54 Min 35 32 48 33 26 56 46 44 Range =
7 8 10 11 14 11 13 10 StD-P 1.8 1.9 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.5 4.7 3.0 Count 9 9 9 9 9=
 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility =
Matrix    Day 5: Saturday, December  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Te=
mp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  =
(Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 47 +2 ERCOT(SP) 65 NC FRC=
C(SE) 77 +3 MAAC(NE) 54 +1 MAIN(CTR) 42 +2 MAPP(HP) 35 +3 NPCC(NE) 49 NC SE=
RC(SE) 63 +2 SPP(SP) 52 NC WSCC(NW) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 38 -1 WSCC(SW) 56 -1    =
 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mea=
n 40 34 44 39 29 60 57 49 Max 42 41 53 44 41 65 63 56 Min 37 31 39 35 24 56=
 48 46 Range 5 10 14 9 17 9 15 10 StD-P 1.7 3.5 3.6 2.2 4.9 2.8 4.3 3.1 Cou=
nt 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the=
 Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:   The 6-10 day period it is safe=
 to say will be less active than the short range. That's not much of a stre=
tch though given the magnitude of short-term storms. The overall pattern do=
es not change much with some degree of trough still expected in the West. W=
e will probably beat down the SE ridge somewhat this period. It still looks=
 doubtful to me that we would see any sustainable cold air very far South i=
nto the U.S. In fact, the trend in the arctic regions appears to be one of =
cooling during this period. Typically when this happens, the result is one =
of warming in the Southern half of Canada. I don't see a major warm up and =
in fact many areas of the Lower 48 will be cooler than recent weeks. Howeve=
r, in a relative to normal sense, I anticipate most areas to run near or sl=
ightly above normal through ! the first week of December.    Day 6: Sunday,=
 December  2, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix   =
 [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge=
)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 +5 ERCOT(SP) 65 +1 FRCC(SE) 75 +3 MAAC(NE) 51 +5=
 MAIN(CTR) 43 +4 MAPP(HP) 39 +6 NPCC(NE) 45 +2 SERC(SE) 60 +3 SPP(SP) 55 +1=
 WSCC(NW) 43 -1 WSCC(RK) 43 +1 WSCC(SW) 58 -1     Range Standard Deviation =
[IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 37 45 38 33 60 57 51 =
Max 41 45 49 43 44 65 63 58 Min 35 32 41 35 29 52 48 48 Range 6 13 8 8 15 1=
3 15 10 StD-P 1.8 3.1 2.3 2.4 4.0 4.5 5.2 3.1 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click H=
ere  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7=
: Monday, December  3, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility =
Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image t=
o enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 46 +5 ERCOT(SP) 68 NC FRCC(SE) 75 +5 MAAC(=
NE) 50 +5 MAIN(CTR) 44 +3 MAPP(HP) 40 +4 NPCC(NE) 42 +3 SERC(SE) 61 +3 SPP(=
SP) 57 +1 WSCC(NW) 42 -2 WSCC(RK) 42 -3 WSCC(SW) 56 -3     Range Standard D=
eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 40 42 36 35 =
58 60 49 Max 42 45 47 42 43 64 66 57 Min 39 35 37 33 30 51 56 45 Range 3 10=
 10 9 13 13 10 12 StD-P 1.1 2.7 3.4 3.0 3.7 4.3 3.7 3.8 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8=
 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matr=
ix    Day 8: Tuesday, December  4, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.  =
 Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Clic=
k on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 43 +3 ERCOT(SP) 65 +4 FRCC(SE)=
 67 +3 MAAC(NE) 43 +3 MAIN(CTR) 44 +4 MAPP(HP) 38 +2 NPCC(NE) 39 +6 SERC(SE=
) 54 NC SPP(SP) 51 +2 WSCC(NW) 36 -3 WSCC(RK) 28 -2 WSCC(SW) 47 -6     Rang=
e Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 =
37 41 36 31 60 64 48 Max 48 42 46 42 42 64 69 56 Min 41 34 38 32 26 56 57 4=
5 Range 7 8 8 10 16 8 12 11 StD-P 1.6 2.6 2.1 3.1 4.8 2.7 3.0 3.9 Count 8 8=
 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volat=
ility Matrix   Day 9: Wednesday, December  5, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  De=
lta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMA=
GE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 38 +6 ERCOT(SP) 67 +=
6 FRCC(SE) 68 +4 MAAC(NE) 41 +1 MAIN(CTR) 36 +7 MAPP(HP) 38 +7 NPCC(NE) 43 =
+6 SERC(SE) 55 +4 SPP(SP) 56 +7 WSCC(NW) 34 -3 WSCC(RK) 32 -1 WSCC(SW) 47 +=
1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S=
W Mean 41 36 44 35 29 62 63 48 Max 47 41 47 41 39 66 67 56 Min 37 30 41 32 =
21 57 55 45 Range 10 11 6 9 18 9 12 11 StD-P 3.5 4.1 1.8 1.9 4.6 3.7 2.8 2.=
1 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Withi=
n the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Thursday, December  6, 2001   Syncrasy's=
 Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]=
  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 43 +15 =
ERCOT(SP) 66 +4 FRCC(SE) 68 +3 MAAC(NE) 37 +9 MAIN(CTR) 50 +19 MAPP(HP) 45 =
+14 NPCC(NE) 33 +10 SERC(SE) 55 +3 SPP(SP) 59 +7 WSCC(NW) 32 -5 WSCC(RK) 27=
 NC WSCC(SW) 44 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP=
 NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 31 41 33 22 59 55 41 Max 47 41 50 36 28 63 64 45=
 Min 31 20 34 30 14 57 46 38 Range 16 21 16 6 14 6 18 7 StD-P 5.3 7.9 6.2 1=
.3 5.2 1.9 6.3 2.9 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Fo=
recast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed arou=
nd and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall=
?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apb=
energy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]  =09
=09=09=09
